What if Regional-bank credit costs spike on CRE-office provisions?
Rising office-CRE delinquencies force regional banks to build reserves sharply, gutting quarterly earnings and freezing buybacks even as deposits stay stable; the group de-rates.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rising office-CRE delinquencies force regional banks to build reserves sharply, gutting quarterly earnings and freezing buybacks even as deposits stay stable; the group de-rates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.34–+0.55% · other way +27.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -11.88–+4.8% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.38–+0.68% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.41–-0.24% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.43–+2.1% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.31–+1.36% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.73–-0.03% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.57–+0.36% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.5–-0.01% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.5–+0.49% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 12 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.0–+0.18% · other way +2.16% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.38–+1.22% · other way +21.75% (n=11) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.65–+1.77% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.0% · 5d -11.0% | 87% | 9 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +0.1% | 71% | 27 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -5.4% | 73% | 13 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 63% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.3% | 59% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +5.7% | 60% | 9 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.4% | 58% | 37 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +5.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |