What if Reliability-shortfall scare lifts power-price and utility volatility?
A NERC shortfall warning plus a near-miss outage spikes forward power-price volatility and widens dispersion in XLU, rewarding firm-capacity owners and punishing reliability-exposed laggards.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A NERC shortfall warning plus a near-miss outage spikes forward power-price volatility and widens dispersion in XLU, rewarding firm-capacity owners and punishing reliability-exposed laggards. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.1–+0.17% · other way +0.34% (n=9) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.47–+3.66% · other way -9.13% (n=11) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.92–+1.57% · other way +3.61% (n=9) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.69–+0.47% · other way +11.41% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.23–+0.23% · other way +0.52% (n=11) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.51–+0.39% · other way +16.5% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.39–+0.56% · other way +3.78% (n=9) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.25–+0.29% · other way +0.41% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -8.6% | 65% | 18 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -3.9% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.7% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -4.4% | 53% | 22 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.3% · 5d +2.9% | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 44% | 26 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -1bp | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |