What if Reshoring-capex beneficiaries re-rate across the industrial supply chain?
Factory construction, electrical gear and automation suppliers see order growth from US reshoring, re-rating the broad industrial supply chain; the capex-and-labor reflation supports industrial earnings and blue-collar demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Factory construction, electrical gear and automation suppliers see order growth from US reshoring, re-rating the broad industrial supply chain; the capex-and-labor reflation supports industrial earnings and blue-collar demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -16.03–+10.2% · other way -0.85% (n=8) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -5.94–+7.78% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.79–+1.4% · other way -2.07% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.45–+1.89% · other way -4.76% (n=8) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.01–+0.53% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.31–+0.98% · other way +1.24% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.96–+1.84% · other way +1.79% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.13–+0.53% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 10 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.35–+0.63% · other way -1.97% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.45–+2.41% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.12–+0.46% · other way +0.69% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -10.98–+11.91% · other way -2.39% (n=6) |
| 14 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -7.31–+5.19% · other way -1.35% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 15 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -16.9% · 5d -11.4% | 83% | 6 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -0.4% | 78% | 9 | 0.46 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -4.3% | 83% | 6 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +6bp | 68% | 15 | 0.33 | · |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 9 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 9 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 70% | 10 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +1.5% | 67% | 9 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 9 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.0% · 5d +5.2% | 62% | 8 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 9 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 11 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -5.7% | 60% | 10 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.5% | 58% | 15 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |