What if Resilient US consumer powers a discretionary-spend upside surprise?
Real wage gains and a strong labor market keep discretionary outlays growing faster than feared, beating muted estimates; consumer-cyclical names from retailers to restaurants rally on the spend surprise.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Real wage gains and a strong labor market keep discretionary outlays growing faster than feared, beating muted estimates; consumer-cyclical names from retailers to restaurants rally on the spend surprise. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.1–+7.03% · other way -4.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -5.61–+12.0% · other way +7.69% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.01–+0.68% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.9–+2.73% · other way -4.93% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.65–+6.87% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.02–+0.55% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.31–+0.65% · other way +5.51% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.09–+0.67% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.5–+2.16% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.95–+10.07% · other way +3.74% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.46–+3.12% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.25–+0.15% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -2.22–+0.77% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -6.8% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 31 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.5% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 43% | 28 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |