What if a resource-nationalist president bans nickel exports and nationalises mines?
An Indonesian resource-nationalist win is a nickel/EM-FX story, not a Nasdaq one: ban risk bids LME nickel and stainless input costs while the rupiah and JCI gap lower on capital-flight fears. Rhymes with Jakarta's 2020 ore-export ban (nickel +30% into 2022) and the 2014 ban. Indonesia supplies ~50% of global nickel; the forward twist is that today's NPI/MHP oversupply and China's CATL-led LFP shift blunt the price spike versus 2014.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. New president pledges nickel-export bans and mine nationalization, JCI and rupiah drop on commodity-supply fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ · EM currencies ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.