What if Restored dollar confidence after a US deal reverses the gold bid?
A credible US fiscal deal restores reserve confidence in the dollar; the safe-haven premium rotates back from gold into Treasuries, firming the dollar.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A credible US fiscal deal restores reserve confidence in the dollar; the safe-haven premium rotates back from gold into Treasuries, firming the dollar. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Gold ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.69–-0.44% · other way +1.78% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -6.54–+10.02% · other way +13.78% (n=10) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.05–+6.04% · other way +0.31% (n=10) |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.39–+0.72% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 5 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.56–-0.07% · other way +0.03% (n=10) |
| 6 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.55–-0.21% · other way -0.25% (n=10) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.98–+8.78% · other way +10.14% (n=10) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.67–-0.21% · other way +0.02% (n=10) |
| 9 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.05–+0.97% · other way +0.23% (n=10) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.48–-0.15% · other way +0.6% (n=10) |
| 11 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.63–-0.05% · other way -0.13% (n=10) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.05–+0.57% · other way -0.08% (n=11) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -6bp hist -4.44–+3.26% · other way +4.5% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -3.51–+7.34% · other way +2.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.6% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -6.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |