What if the Riksbank must ease into a property downturn even as a weak krona stokes inflation?
The Riksbank is forced to ease into a property-driven downturn even as a weak krona stokes inflation, a policy bind that amplifies krona and credit-spread volatility.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The Riksbank is forced to ease into a property-driven downturn even as a weak krona stokes inflation, a policy bind that amplifies krona and credit-spread volatility. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Financial conditions ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -8.2–+5.25% · other way -2.3% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -5.47–+1.04% · other way +31.87% (n=12) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.46–+1.8% · other way +4.16% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.7–-0.13% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.95–+1.61% · other way +7.7% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.53–+3.92% · other way -7.61% (n=12) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.76–+0.02% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.63–-0.03% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.53–+0.49% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.39–+3.5% · other way +24.19% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.98–+0.65% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.55–+0.05% · other way +0.83% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.76–+2.5% · other way +1.44% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH SMH | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 65% | 26 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +7.2% | 67% | 6 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.4% | 65% | 31 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.4% | 65% | 26 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -9.8% | 67% | 6 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -3bp | 59% | 34 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d -4bp | 59% | 36 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 26 | 0.14 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.4% | 57% | 7 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -3.4% | 56% | 9 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 36 | 0.08 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.3% | 54% | 26 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 36 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |