What if Riksbank tightening passes rapidly through Sweden's short-fixation mortgages?
Riksbank policy stays tight, with rapid pass-through to Swedish short-fixation mortgages compressing household spending.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Riksbank policy stays tight, with rapid pass-through to Swedish short-fixation mortgages compressing household spending. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Mortgage rates ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.68–-0.08% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 2 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.15–+0.09% · other way -2.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–+0.25% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -0.94–+10.57% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.63–-0.05% · other way -0.49% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.3–+0.98% · other way +1.97% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -1.18–+10.0% · other way -1.9% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -12.77–+2.23% · other way -7.22% (n=12) |
| 9 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.43–+3.83% · other way -9.95% (n=3) |
| 10 | Robinhood HOODon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.34–+0.57% · other way -9.58% (n=4) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.19–+0.18% · other way +1.89% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -14.48–+2.81% · other way +18.48% (n=7) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.23–+1.24% · other way -3.68% (n=4) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -9.3% | 100% | 4 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -10.6% · 5d -6.5% | 71% | 24 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.2% · 5d -9.5% | 70% | 20 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.0% | 72% | 32 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.3% | 69% | 32 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -4.9% | 64% | 22 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 31 | 0.20 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +1bp | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -4.1% | 58% | 19 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 34 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |