What if Risk-off shock unwinds crowded MENA carry positions?
A global risk-off episode forces a rapid unwind of crowded Egyptian and Turkish carry trades, spiking MENA FX volatility and widening regional credit spreads sharply.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global risk-off episode forces a rapid unwind of crowded Egyptian and Turkish carry trades, spiking MENA FX volatility and widening regional credit spreads sharply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.81–+1.19% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.13–+0.05% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.0–+1.41% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.51–+0.99% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–+0.12% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.09% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -7.82–+1.98% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.94–+3.61% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 10 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–+0.2% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.17–-0.07% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.6–+0.64% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.26–+0.18% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.35–+0.68% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -7.4% | 78% | 9 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -7.6% | 71% | 14 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 26 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 26 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -4.3% | 66% | 29 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 25 | 0.16 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 27 | 0.09 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 54% | 26 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 54% | 35 | 0.07 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -4.6% | 53% | 19 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d +4.5% ↺ fades | 50% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 49% | 35 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 50% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |