What if robotaxis and autonomous trucking reach scale?
Robotaxi/autonomous-trucking scale is a productivity-positive, labor-displacing shock: compute beneficiaries (Nvidia/semis) and Tesla lead, with disinflation a modest tailwind. Analogue is the 2023 AI-capex rerating; the displacement of ~3.5m US trucking/driving jobs is the novel demand-side risk. Forward angle: the real second-order trade is in auto insurance (loss ratios collapse) and freight rates, plus the rideshare incumbents (Uber/Lyft) as the disrupted, not the GPU names the cascade centers on.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Self-driving robotaxis and autonomous trucking reach scale, gutting rideshare and trucking employment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Robotics productivity ▲ · Job displacement ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.