What if Robotics and vision-AI capex lifts automation suppliers into a new cycle?
Cheaper vision-AI and labor scarcity drive factory and warehouse automation orders, lifting Cognex, Rockwell, Zebra and robotics-component makers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Cheaper vision-AI and labor scarcity drive factory and warehouse automation orders, lifting Cognex, Rockwell, Zebra and robotics-component makers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist -1.63–+5.44% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.73–+1.3% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.19–+1.85% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.43–+1.05% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.21–+1.96% · other way +1.87% (n=12) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.31–+1.96% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -5.86–+3.35% · other way -5.17% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.36–+0.86% · other way -2.76% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.38–+0.9% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.4–+1.33% · other way -4.65% (n=12) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.69–+1.5% · other way -2.52% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -20.32–+5.43% · other way -7.7% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.06–+0.91% · other way -1.45% (n=12) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -7.74–+21.44% · other way +0.12% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 16 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -18.1% · 5d -10.5% | 93% | 11 | 0.60 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +19.7% · 5d +0.2% | 74% | 14 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.2% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 69% | 13 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.0% | 74% | 14 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 68% | 14 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.9% | 66% | 16 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +1bp | 68% | 16 | 0.28 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 71% | 14 | 0.27 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 69% | 15 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 15 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.5% | 65% | 14 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 61% | 16 | 0.17 | · |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 61% | 15 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -6.1% | 61% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |