What if a robotics productivity boom drives deflationary growth?
A robotics productivity boom is the goldilocks tail: GDP up, margins up, inflation down — Nvidia and semis lead, the Nasdaq rerates, and falling breakevens pull real yields' nominal twin lower. Analogue is the 2023-24 AI-capex melt-up and the productivity-driven late-1990s tech rerating. Forward angle: a genuine deflationary-growth boom is rate-cut-friendly and would steepen the curve bullishly; the risk is that capex intensity (power, HBM, fabs) caps the disinflation the cascade assumes.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A robotics-driven productivity surge lifts margins and GDP — a deflationary growth boom. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.