What if ransomware freezes the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp?
Ransomware freezing Rotterdam/Antwerp for ten days is a contained European logistics and modest goods-inflation event, correctly scaled small here - a cyber cousin of a port closure, not a financial-system shock. No clean analogue; closest is the 2017 NotPetya hit that crippled Maersk's terminals for weeks. Northwest Europe's hinterland (Germany, Benelux) is the exposed importer; the forward angle is cyber recovery is faster than physical salvage, so the ten-day backlog clears quicker than an Ever-Given-style grounding.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Ransomware cripples Rotterdam and Antwerp terminal operating systems, freezing Europe's largest gateway for ten days. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.