What if sabotage attacks on delivery and factory robots spread?
Coordinated sabotage of delivery/factory robots raises security and insurance costs and chills deployment, de-rating Nvidia/Tesla/semis on a slower-adoption read. Rhymes with historical Luddite machine-breaking and modern anti-AV vandalism (Waymo car torched, San Francisco 2024) — localized, reputationally loud, economically small. Trade: the robotics-name wobble is real but shallow; the consumer/inflation legs are negligible on a vandalism story.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Coordinated vandalism of delivery robots and factory automation spreads, raising security costs and insurer caution on deployments. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▼ · Robotics productivity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.