What if Sahel development-and-agriculture investment curbs outmigration (good)?
Sustained investment in Sahel agriculture, water and jobs improves food security and livelihoods, curbing distress migration; lower regional risk and steadier food supply support a constructive backdrop.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Sustained investment in Sahel agriculture, water and jobs improves food security and livelihoods, curbing distress migration; lower regional risk and steadier food supply support a constructive backdrop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Food inflation ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -4.1% hist -4.54–-0.36% · other way -3.23% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.5–+1.13% · other way +0.88% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.3–+1.08% · other way +1.09% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -6.18–+13.63% · other way +11.26% (n=11) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.04–+1.3% · other way -2.95% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.74–+6.66% · other way +5.67% (n=8) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.21–+1.65% · other way +1.06% (n=11) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.73–+2.59% · other way -7.34% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.33–+6.25% · other way -5.87% (n=11) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.34–-0.12% · other way +0.2% (n=11) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.1–+2.94% · other way -1.0% (n=11) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.14–+0.29% · other way -0.39% (n=11) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.18–+10.77% · other way +20.89% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 70% | 40 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.3% | 70% | 40 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.4% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.2% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +1.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -6.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.6% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |