What if Salesforce growth stalls below 5 percent?
A Salesforce guide below 5% re-rates the whole cloud-software complex because the bellwether sets the read on enterprise IT demand — high-multiple SaaS and crypto beta lead lower. Rhymes with CRM's 2023 growth-deceleration scare that pressured the IGV software group before margins offset it. Forward angle: today the swing factor is whether AI agents add seats or replace them — a sub-5% print would validate the bear case that AI deflates seat-based SaaS revenue.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Bellwether enterprise-software vendor guides to single-digit growth, re-rating the entire cloud-software complex. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.