What if sustained low oil pushes Saudi Arabia's deficit past 6% of GDP?
A sustained low-oil period pushes Saudi Arabia to a high-single-digit deficit/GDP, accelerating bond sales and drawing down SAMA reserves to defend spending and the peg.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sustained low-oil period pushes Saudi Arabia to a high-single-digit deficit/GDP, accelerating bond sales and drawing down SAMA reserves to defend spending and the peg. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.04–+1.45% · other way +12.56% (n=9) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.21–+1.77% · other way -1.8% (n=9) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.18–+0.4% · other way +4.09% (n=5) |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.34–+0.39% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.12–+1.99% · other way +27.86% (n=5) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.04% · other way -0.45% (n=8) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.31–+0.29% · other way -2.62% (n=8) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.54–+0.44% · other way +6.04% (n=5) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -0.62–+2.34% · other way +24.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.33–+-0.0% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.33–+0.27% · other way -1.42% (n=8) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.02–+1.79% · other way +26.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.86–+0.35% · other way +2.06% (n=9) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.74–+0.68% · other way +3.12% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.1% | 72% | 38 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 69% | 38 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.3% | 67% | 38 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 65% | 38 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -8.3% | 65% | 16 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -1bp | 61% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 52% | 38 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 39% | 23 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |