What if Saudi non-oil GDP outgrows oil, riyal de-links from crude?
Non-oil sectors led by tourism, logistics and finance grow fast enough that Saudi fiscal health decouples from the oil cycle, structurally compressing the kingdom's sovereign spread.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Non-oil sectors led by tourism, logistics and finance grow fast enough that Saudi fiscal health decouples from the oil cycle, structurally compressing the kingdom's sovereign spread. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.