What if Saudi Arabia accelerates energy-subsidy cuts to plug a low-oil deficit?
To plug a low-oil deficit, Riyadh accelerates energy-subsidy and VAT increases, raising domestic inflation and social-spending tensions in a politically sensitive adjustment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. To plug a low-oil deficit, Riyadh accelerates energy-subsidy and VAT increases, raising domestic inflation and social-spending tensions in a politically sensitive adjustment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.52% · other way -0.47% (n=9) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.06–+4.72% · other way +16.9% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.23–+0.24% · other way -1.8% (n=10) |
| 4 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.38–+0.79% · other way +17.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d 0bp | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d +3.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.07 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 42% | 28 | 0.00 | · |