What if a second Scottish independence vote is scheduled?
A legislated second Scottish IndyRef raises UK debt-split and sterling-zone questions — modest GBP and gilt risk premium, but the +5.5% VIX / -2.3% Nasdaq is a large US-centric overshoot for a slow-burn constitutional process. Rhymes with the Sept 2014 referendum when polls tightened and sterling wobbled, then relief-rallied on the No vote. Transmission: UK sovereign/sterling uncertainty over debt apportionment; negligible global spillover. Forward angle: a multi-year legal/political timeline means this is a slow-bleed GBP risk premium, not a vol event — fade the spike.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A second IndyRef is legislated, raising questions over UK debt split and sterling-zone membership. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.