What if secular stagnation reprices long-duration growth assets?
A secular-stagnation/productivity-collapse realization is a bull-flattener: growth disappointment pulls 30y/10y real yields and the whole curve lower, bidding gold and rate-sensitive duration (tech) while mortgage rates ease. Rhymes with the 2010-2015 'new normal' regime and the Aug-2024 Sahm-rule growth scare. Forward angle: this is the anti-AI-productivity trade, so it only holds if the AI-capex boom fails to lift output, watch productivity data as the tell, and note tech rallying on duration even as growth fades.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A productivity-collapse / secular-stagnation realization reprices long-duration growth assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Real yields ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.