What if secular stagnation reprices long-duration growth assets?
A secular-stagnation/productivity-collapse realization is a bull-flattener: growth disappointment pulls 30y/10y real yields and the whole curve lower, bidding gold and rate-sensitive duration (tech) while mortgage rates ease. Rhymes with the 2010-2015 'new normal' regime and the Aug-2024 Sahm-rule growth scare. Forward angle: this is the anti-AI-productivity trade, so it only holds if the AI-capex boom fails to lift output, watch productivity data as the tell, and note tech rallying on duration even as growth fades.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A productivity-collapse / secular-stagnation realization reprices long-duration growth assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Real yields ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.13–+2.29% · other way +5.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.07–+0.68% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 3 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.26–+2.55% · other way +9.9% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.2–+0.82% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.04–+0.09% · other way +4.01% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.1% hist -7.51–+2.51% · other way +1.8% (n=12) |
| 8 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.19–+0.21% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 22 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -6.0% | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.5% | 56% | 38 | 0.10 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.0% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
AI capex argues against stagnation narrative; productivity-collapse realization less likely mid-2026. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.