What if Brazil's central bank delivers an emergency Selic hike after the real collapses?
BCB delivers an emergency inter-meeting Selic hike to defend the real after a fiscal-credibility shock drives BRL past 6.5/USD and inflation expectations de-anchor.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. BCB delivers an emergency inter-meeting Selic hike to defend the real after a fiscal-credibility shock drives BRL past 6.5/USD and inflation expectations de-anchor. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.75–-0.2% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.63–-0.33% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.3–+5.17% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist +0.05–+11.24% · other way +5.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.86–+1.17% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist +0.64–+8.73% · other way +6.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.94–+0.38% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.53–+0.07% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 9 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.46–-0.17% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.69–+0.74% · other way +7.54% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.47–+0.98% · other way +4.46% (n=12) |
| 13 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.5–+1.5% · other way +0.73% (n=11) |
| 14 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–+0.14% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.3% | 71% | 37 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -6.7% | 69% | 26 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 36 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -4.3% | 60% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +6.3% | 57% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.0% | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -6.4% | 58% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 35 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.4% · 5d +3.3% | 53% | 35 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |