What if Senegal's restructuring talks break down?
Senegal's IMF talks breaking on hidden-debt comparability with debt >130% of GDP forces a disorderly Eurobond restructuring; the global read is a contained VIX/HY blip. Mozambique's 2016 'hidden debt' (tuna bonds) scandal is the precise analogue, which froze its IMF program and triggered default. Transmission is to IMF/bondholder comparability negotiations; the geopolitical/defense legs are spurious here, but the small credit reaction is right-sized.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Senegal's IMF talks collapse over hidden-debt comparability, forcing a disorderly Eurobond restructuring as debt tops 130% of GDP. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.