What if Serbia's government falls and the country pivots west?
Marginal macro event; the real channel is Balkan energy flows shifting off Russian gas toward EU/LNG and TurkStream renegotiation, not a global vol shock. A Serbian westward pivot rhymes with Ukraine's 2014 Maidan turn — local assets and the dinar wobble, but spillover to the S&P is negligible. Transmission runs through Gazprom's NIS stake and Hungary/Russia pipeline politics, not US equities; fade the modeled VIX bid.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mass protests oust the government, new pro-EU leadership reorders Balkan energy and investment flows. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.