What if robots displace much of the service-sector workforce?
Service-sector displacement is a stagflationary-for-labor mix: automation beneficiaries (Nvidia/Tesla) rise while consumer-credit spreads widen and discretionary spend softens as displaced workers retrench. The market has no clean labor-displacement analogue yet; the capex-beneficiary leg rhymes with the 2023 AI rerating, but the consumer-credit leg is the novel, under-priced risk. Forward angle: the cascade keeps semis bid, but if displacement is fast enough to dent aggregate demand, the consumer-credit and subprime-auto channel dominates — fade the 'productivity is pure positive' framing.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Robots replace a large share of fast-food, retail and logistics jobs, spiking sector unemployment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.