What if US community banks sharply cut CRE lending to preserve capital?
US community banks sharply cut CRE lending to preserve capital, choking refinancing and deepening the property downturn, a Fed-flagged feedback loop.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. US community banks sharply cut CRE lending to preserve capital, choking refinancing and deepening the property downturn, a Fed-flagged feedback loop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -6.1–+1.14% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -11.95–+3.13% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -11.51–+3.04% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -8.85–+1.72% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.92–-0.07% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.14–+0.01% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.02–+0.52% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.29–+0.21% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.17–+3.88% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.37–-0.07% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–-0.18% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.22–-0.13% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.22–+0.19% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -7.5% | 79% | 14 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -5.4% | 75% | 16 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.9% | 69% | 38 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -4.2% | 68% | 22 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 68% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 37 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.7% | 64% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.6% | 59% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |