What if the smartphone upgrade super-cycle stalls?
A double-digit handset-unit downturn from upgrade fatigue drags Apple, Qualcomm and the supply chain — a cyclical-demand miss, so the tape is moderate risk-off with VIX up, not a systemic break. The analogue is the 2018–19 and 2022 smartphone slumps that hit Qualcomm/Skyworks and Apple unit guidance. Forward angle: an on-device-AI 'must-upgrade' cycle is the bull offset — if it fails to materialize, the replacement-cycle lengthening structurally caps Apple hardware growth, not just a one-year air-pocket.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global upgrade-fatigue downturn cuts handset units double digits, dragging Apple, Qualcomm, and the supply chain. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -8.01–+1.91% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.93–+0.03% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.76–+2.46% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.41–+0.07% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.99–+0.76% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.33–+1.42% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+0.47% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.66–+0.18% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.04% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–-0.04% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.51–+0.99% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short: COIN/MSTR/BTC 'up' history is the 2024-25 crypto bull, not handset demand — BTC swamps these names, so realized gains say nothing about a smartphone air-pocket.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -5.4% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -4.9% | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.8% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -3.0% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 40% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +1.2% | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Handset cycles soften but double-digit unit drops are infrequent absent recession; modest odds. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.