What if Solar-module price war crushes manufacturer margins?
Chronic Chinese overcapacity drives module prices below cash cost, bankrupting weaker manufacturers and compressing margins across the solar supply chain even as deployment booms.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Chronic Chinese overcapacity drives module prices below cash cost, bankrupting weaker manufacturers and compressing margins across the solar supply chain even as deployment booms. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.55–+0.38% · other way -6.55% (n=5) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.6–+0.39% · other way -9.91% (n=4) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.96–+0.54% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.3–+0.58% · other way -6.31% (n=5) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.92–+3.25% · other way +1.14% (n=5) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.4–+1.41% |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.2–-0.04% · other way -0.24% (n=4) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.55–+0.8% |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–-0.03% |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.32–+0.93% · other way -1.2% (n=6) |
| 12 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.97–+0.8% · other way -4.88% (n=5) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.15–+0.26% · other way +4.11% (n=5) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.99–+2.29% · other way +62.86% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.2% | 78% | 39 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.0% | 72% | 39 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.2% | 71% | 39 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.5% | 69% | 39 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -9.2% | 70% | 14 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.7% | 61% | 21 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.0% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +0bp | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |