What if a South African blackout shuts the platinum mines?
An Eskom grid collapse idling Rustenburg shafts chokes ~70% of mined platinum and the bulk of rhodium — the clean move is a PGM supply squeeze (platinum/rhodium up hard), with the broad VIX/Nasdaq risk-off in the cascade overstated for a localized metals event. Rhymes with the 2008 South African load-shedding that spiked platinum to its record and the 2014 Rustenburg strikes. Forward angle: thrifting and EV substitution cap the auto-catalyst pull versus 2008, so the deficit bites jewelry/industrial inventory first.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Eskom grid collapse forces simultaneous shutdown of Rustenburg PGM shafts, choking platinum and rhodium supply for months. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.9% hist -0.78–+6.0% · other way -6.78% (n=11) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.53–+1.7% · other way -0.55% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.45–+0.01% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 4 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.49–+0.65% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.86–+1.47% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.12% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–+0.04% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.01–+0.21% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.02–+1.74% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.87–+1.77% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.02–+0.86% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.45–+2.46% · other way +12.35% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.33–-0.05% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–+0.59% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.2% | 72% | 27 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +4.0% | 67% | 29 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -2.2% | 68% | 28 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 27 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.3% | 57% | 32 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 26 | 0.12 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 27 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.6% | 55% | 28 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 53% | 27 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.8% | 53% | 27 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Eskom load-shedding recurs, but a months-long simultaneous PGM-shaft halt is uncommon. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.