What if South Korea defense-export boom (K9, tanks, jets) scales globally?
Hanwha, Hyundai Rotem and KAI win large NATO and Mideast orders for K9 howitzers, K2 tanks and FA-50 jets, making Korea a top-tier arms exporter and lifting the cohort.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Hanwha, Hyundai Rotem and KAI win large NATO and Mideast orders for K9 howitzers, K2 tanks and FA-50 jets, making Korea a top-tier arms exporter and lifting the cohort. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.6% hist -0.67–+7.51% |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.72–-0.4% |
| 3 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.51–+2.52% |
| 4 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.36–+2.05% |
| 5 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.98–+0.86% |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.55–+0.01% |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.54–+0.13% |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.51–-0.09% |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.09–+0.36% |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.43–+0.33% |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.77–+0.1% |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.62–+0.72% |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.16–+3.67% |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.72–+0.84% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 64% | 21 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -3.1% | 68% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +1.5% | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 22 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.7% | 63% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -3.4% | 58% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.0% | 58% | 31 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -4.1% | 58% | 26 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +6bp | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.8% | 56% | 30 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 26 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |