What if a sovereign wealth fund dumps US equities?
A sovereign wealth fund rotating out of US equities hits the long end and the dollar first: 30y/10y yields back up on fading reserve demand, gold and BTC bid as non-sovereign hedges while Nasdaq leads equities lower. Rhymes with the 2013 taper tantrum's reserve-flow dynamics and episodic foreign-selling scares. Forward angle: with US debt/GDP elevated and reserve diversification a live theme, a credible exit headline now moves term premium more than dip-buyers can offset.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A large sovereign wealth fund rotates aggressively out of US equities. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.