What if a SPAC redemption wave freezes the IPO pipeline?
A de-SPAC collapse forcing mass trust redemptions freezes the IPO pipeline — but the cascade routes it almost entirely through crypto (ETH/SOL/BTC down hardest), which is the right instinct: the 2021-22 SPAC and crypto bubbles shared the same speculative-liquidity buyer. The analogue is the 2022 SPAC unwind alongside the FTX/3AC crypto deleveraging — they bled together. Skeptical note: SPAC trusts are cash-collateralized, so redemptions are orderly; the real contagion is sentiment into other speculative pockets, not a funding spiral.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A collapse in de-SPAC valuations triggers mass redemptions, unwinding 300 trust accounts and freezing the IPO pipeline. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.