What if Stablecoin T-bill demand caps front-end yields?
Explosive stablecoin growth creates a structural new bid for US Treasury bills, easing front-end funding and reinforcing dollar primacy even amid diversification headlines.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Explosive stablecoin growth creates a structural new bid for US Treasury bills, easing front-end funding and reinforcing dollar primacy even amid diversification headlines. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Crypto liquidity ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.33–+5.05% · other way +4.57% (n=10) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.0–-0.27% · other way -1.12% (n=10) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.45–+0.22% · other way -15.85% (n=7) |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.16–+0.5% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.12–+7.56% · other way +2.15% (n=5) |
| 6 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.29–-0.05% · other way +0.01% (n=10) |
| 7 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.99–+3.95% · other way -9.8% (n=12) |
| 8 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–-0.1% · other way -0.12% (n=10) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.98–+6.75% · other way -11.5% (n=12) |
| 10 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.71–+0.51% · other way +0.07% (n=10) |
| 11 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.22–-0.1% · other way +0.29% (n=10) |
| 12 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.06–+0.67% · other way -0.86% (n=10) |
| 13 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+0.01% · other way +1.1% (n=10) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.16–-0.05% · other way -0.38% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +1bp | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.8% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +1bp | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |