What if stagflation traps advanced economies between rising debt costs and weak growth?
A stagflationary mix traps advanced-economy fiscal authorities between rising debt costs and weak growth, lifting term premia and recession risk together.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A stagflationary mix traps advanced-economy fiscal authorities between rising debt costs and weak growth, lifting term premia and recession risk together. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.08–+1.72% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.15–-0.27% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -5.63–+1.55% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.8–-0.45% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.73–+1.07% · other way +4.46% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.77–+0.24% · other way +7.54% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.19–+4.0% · other way -1.26% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist +0.03–+9.87% · other way +5.4% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist +1.9–+5.26% · other way +6.3% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.21–+0.67% · other way +1.48% (n=12) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–+1.38% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.45–+0.22% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.83–+0.85% · other way +22.86% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.0% | 78% | 33 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.3% | 73% | 33 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.4% | 73% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.7% | 71% | 35 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -6.5% | 70% | 27 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -5.2% | 63% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +8.7% | 56% | 34 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -6.5% | 58% | 30 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 55% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 33 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 33 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |