What if Beijing injects hundreds of billions into state banks to cover property losses?
Beijing injects hundreds of billions of yuan into the big state banks via special bonds to shore up capital against property/LGFV losses, an extraordinary signal of system stress.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Beijing injects hundreds of billions of yuan into the big state banks via special bonds to shore up capital against property/LGFV losses, an extraordinary signal of system stress. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.04–+0.94% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.6–+2.09% · other way +25.2% (n=12) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.82–+0.04% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.1–+0.6% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.72–+0.44% · other way +1.57% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.3–+2.02% · other way +5.1% (n=11) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–+0.27% · other way +1.08% (n=12) |
| 8 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–+0.01% · other way -0.26% (n=11) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.22–+0.23% · other way -3.79% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.83–+0.12% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.25–+0.3% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.37–+2.37% · other way -3.17% (n=11) |
| 13 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.56–+0.39% · other way -1.14% (n=12) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -3.76–+3.85% · other way +7.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 68% | 37 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 36 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.9% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +1.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 37 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.3% | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.6% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.6% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.7% | 56% | 22 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 37 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |