What if a major state re-bans driverless heavy trucks?
A state re-banning AV heavy trucks refragments corridors and modestly supports consumer/labor demand — a mild risk-on for incumbents, mild drag on AV-silicon names. The Lehman/BNP analogues are mismatched; the apt rhyme is California's repeated AV-truck bills (2023-24) that stalled deployment without macro spillover. Trade is narrow: long incumbent truckload carriers, fade any AV-pure-play on the headline.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Against the deregulation trend, a major state reverses course and re-bans driverless heavy trucks, refragmenting freight corridors into permitted versus prohibited zones. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.