What if Sticky Czech services CPI delays CNB cuts?
Persistent domestic services inflation keeps the CNB cautious, supporting the koruna via a wider real-rate buffer even as growth stays soft.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Persistent domestic services inflation keeps the CNB cautious, supporting the koruna via a wider real-rate buffer even as growth stays soft. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.67–+2.07% · other way +1.31% (n=7) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.67–+0.38% · other way +0.47% (n=7) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.53–+0.15% · other way +0.03% (n=7) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -5.85–+3.12% · other way +5.5% (n=9) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -2.11–+0.71% · other way +2.43% (n=8) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -6.27–+4.21% · other way +4.5% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 71% | 25 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 25 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 25 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -2bp | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.7% | 54% | 19 | 0.06 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 25 | 0.04 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -1bp | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.5% | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | · |