What if Streamlined health-worker visas relieve US care shortage (good)?
Faster licensing and visas for foreign-trained clinicians ease US healthcare staffing gaps, moderating care-cost inflation; the labor-supply relief supports services capacity and household budgets.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Faster licensing and visas for foreign-trained clinicians ease US healthcare staffing gaps, moderating care-cost inflation; the labor-supply relief supports services capacity and household budgets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.