What if China's debt deleveraging permanently lowers its commodity and import intensity?
The combination of debt deleveraging, demographics and the property reset permanently lowers China's commodity and import intensity, structurally reducing global trade and commodity demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The combination of debt deleveraging, demographics and the property reset permanently lowers China's commodity and import intensity, structurally reducing global trade and commodity demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · China growth ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -4.24–+0.94% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.49–+0.23% · other way +1.82% (n=11) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.25–+0.8% · other way -0.98% (n=10) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.86–+0.44% · other way -4.19% (n=10) |
| 5 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–-0.06% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 6 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.62–+0.1% · other way -0.96% (n=11) |
| 7 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.0–+0.21% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–-0.07% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 9 | KOSPI 200 KR200on Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.43–+0.34% · other way +1.6% (n=11) |
| 10 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.34–+-0.0% · other way +4.42% (n=11) |
| 11 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.73–+0.85% · other way +4.72% (n=11) |
| 12 | Nifty 50 NIFTYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.04% · other way -1.74% (n=11) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.37–+0.02% · other way -0.44% (n=11) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.76–+0.54% · other way +5.24% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.1% | 67% | 30 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +1.6% ↺ fades | 67% | 30 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -15.0% | 67% | 15 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.25 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.8% | 63% | 30 | 0.24 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 62% | 24 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.3% | 61% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 32 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.2% | 61% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -6bp | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | · |