What if households cancel subscriptions and the recurring-revenue premium dies?
Mass subscription cancellations collapse the recurring-revenue premium — the trade is multiple de-rating across SaaS and streaming (lower EV/sales, higher churn discount), concentrated in consumer-exposed software and Netflix/Spotify-type names. Rhymes with the 2022 SaaS/ARR derating when the 'rule of 40' premium evaporated and high-multiple software fell 50-70%. Skeptical: enterprise subscriptions are stickier than consumer, so the hit is uneven; the broad high-beta crypto cascade conflates a valuation-regime change with a liquidity crash.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mass subscription cancellations as households cut recurring spend, collapsing the recurring-revenue valuation premium across software and media. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.4–-0.25% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -8.28–+1.74% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.75–-0.13% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -7.98–+2.33% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.78–+0.96% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.55–+1.29% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.89–+0.04% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.59–+0.34% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.37–+0.04% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.39–-0.07% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.38–-0.17% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.6–+0.85% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.46–+1.05% · other way +2.47% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on COIN/AMD/SMH: up-analogues are the 2025 BTC bull (Israel-Iran +63%) and gold squeeze, regime-contaminated; a multi-year subscription-premium derating offers these names no such tailwind.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.7% | 75% | 40 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.8% | 75% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -5.4% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -4.9% | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.8% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
Why this probability
Mass subscription cancellations collapsing the premium is gradual/structural; stickiness high; modest over 1-3yr. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.