What if households cancel subscriptions and the recurring-revenue premium dies?
Mass subscription cancellations collapse the recurring-revenue premium — the trade is multiple de-rating across SaaS and streaming (lower EV/sales, higher churn discount), concentrated in consumer-exposed software and Netflix/Spotify-type names. Rhymes with the 2022 SaaS/ARR derating when the 'rule of 40' premium evaporated and high-multiple software fell 50-70%. Skeptical: enterprise subscriptions are stickier than consumer, so the hit is uneven; the broad high-beta crypto cascade conflates a valuation-regime change with a liquidity crash.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mass subscription cancellations as households cut recurring spend, collapsing the recurring-revenue valuation premium across software and media. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.