What if Supercore PCE cooldown: services-ex-housing eases, cuts greenlit?
A cooldown in supercore services-ex-housing PCE gives the Fed confidence to cut, easing financial conditions and sparking a risk-on duration rally.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A cooldown in supercore services-ex-housing PCE gives the Fed confidence to cut, easing financial conditions and sparking a risk-on duration rally. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▼ · Credit spreads ▼ · Financial conditions ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -6.13–+13.7% · other way -1.63% (n=6) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.73–+6.67% · other way +2.29% (n=3) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.08–+0.52% · other way -0.07% (n=7) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.17–+0.58% · other way +0.28% (n=7) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.72–+2.62% · other way +0.08% (n=4) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.3–+6.28% · other way +2.08% (n=5) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.16–+0.26% · other way +0.57% (n=6) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.0–+0.59% · other way +1.41% (n=6) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.11–+1.06% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.01–+0.2% · other way +1.11% (n=6) |
| 12 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.08–+0.49% · other way -0.21% (n=8) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.22–+10.69% · other way +11.59% (n=3) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -2.87–+3.56% · other way +11.5% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 70% | 40 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.4% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -6.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |