What if Sweden's high share of short-fixation mortgages rapidly transmits rate moves into household budgets?
Sweden's high share of short-fixation mortgages transmits rate moves rapidly into household budgets, deepening a consumption and housing downturn flagged by FI as a key vulnerability.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sweden's high share of short-fixation mortgages transmits rate moves rapidly into household budgets, deepening a consumption and housing downturn flagged by FI as a key vulnerability. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Mortgage rates ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -8.09–+1.86% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.06–-0.05% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.49–+0.02% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -7.82–+2.42% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.91–+0.81% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.4–+1.39% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–+0.09% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.76–+0.12% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.44–+0.43% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–-0.11% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 12 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.21–-0.08% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–+0.01% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.54–+0.95% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -5.4% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -4.9% | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.8% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -3.0% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |