What if a breach cripples a core financial or identity system?
A core financial/identity-system breach de-risks the highest-beta sleeve first: SOL/ETH/HYPE and Nasdaq lead lower as risk appetite fades, but the move is modest because it's an operational, not a solvency, shock. The given GFC analogues (Lehman, BNP) overstate it; a better rhyme is the 2017 Equifax breach or a CrowdStrike-style July-2024 outage - sharp headline, shallow market impact. Skeptic: only escalate the trade if the breach freezes settlement or payments rails, which would convert it into a genuine financial-conditions event.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A massive breach compromises a core financial or national-identity system. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.