What if a Taiwan drought forces water rationing at semiconductor fabs?
A severe Taiwan drought (echoing 2021) forces water rationing at fabs, disrupting semiconductor output in the climate-to-chip-supply channel NGFS-style physical scenarios and the IMF flag.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A severe Taiwan drought (echoing 2021) forces water rationing at fabs, disrupting semiconductor output in the climate-to-chip-supply channel NGFS-style physical scenarios and the IMF flag. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -3.34–+0.3% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.53–+0.31% · other way +7.28% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.75–-0.24% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.33–+0.58% · other way -3.44% (n=12) |
| 5 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.47–+3.8% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 6 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.06–+1.05% · other way +0.19% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.45–-0.16% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–-0.15% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.38–+0.72% · other way -6.54% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.39–+2.67% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.85–+2.92% · other way -8.24% (n=10) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.26–+0.68% · other way -1.05% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.56–+0.81% · other way -3.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 28 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -4.3% | 83% | 12 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.8% | 71% | 14 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.1% | 71% | 21 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.1% | 69% | 16 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +8.0% · 5d +2.0% | 68% | 22 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 67% | 21 | 0.26 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.1% | 67% | 21 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 21 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 21 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.8% | 58% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 21 | 0.13 | · |
| NG NG | LONG | +5.5% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 21 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |