What if a Taiwan drought forces water rationing at semiconductor fabs?
A severe Taiwan drought (echoing 2021) forces water rationing at fabs, disrupting semiconductor output in the climate-to-chip-supply channel NGFS-style physical scenarios and the IMF flag.
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The butterfly cascade
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A severe Taiwan drought (echoing 2021) forces water rationing at fabs, disrupting semiconductor output in the climate-to-chip-supply channel NGFS-style physical scenarios and the IMF flag. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.