What if a Taiwan earthquake shut down TSMC's most advanced fabs?
A Hsinchu-area quake that knocks out TSMC leading-edge lines is a genuine supply shock, not a demand scare: fabless names (Nvidia, AMD) cannot re-source 3nm anywhere, so the squeeze hits volumes and pricing for quarters, with TSMC itself the cleanest short on the impact. Closest real rhyme is the 1999 Chi-Chi quake (and the Feb-2024 Hualien tremor), which dented TSMC output briefly but recovered fast. Forward angle: today's near-zero leading-edge redundancy means a multi-week halt prices far worse than 1999.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A major Taiwan earthquake halts TSMC's leading-edge fabs, choking advanced chips. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.82–-0.07% · other way +1.69% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.51–+2.77% · other way +3.99% (n=12) |
| 3 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.97–-0.34% · other way -3.73% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.7–+0.61% · other way +0.76% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.01–+3.01% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.04–+0.28% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.95–+1.32% · other way -5.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.38–+0.21% · other way +1.6% (n=12) |
| 9 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.91–+0.62% · other way -3.46% (n=12) |
| 10 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.53–+0.5% · other way -1.21% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.1% | 65% | 26 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 30 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.9% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.14 | · |
| MU MU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 30 | 0.05 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.7% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 38% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -3.0% | 48% | 33 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.4% | 50% | 30 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.9% | 47% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.9% | 50% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 47% | 34 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Rare specific quake halting leading-edge fabs; analogues are demand shocks, not seismic. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.