What if talent and capital flee a major economy at once?
A talent-and-capital exodus after a policy shock is a dollar-confidence story, so the trade is short DXY with gold and bitcoin bid as non-sovereign hedges and the long end selling — the 'sell-the-host-economy' signature, with MSTR as the levered BTC expression. Rhymes with the 2022 reserve-weaponization episode that pushed reserve managers toward gold and away from a single sovereign. Forward angle: capital flight is sticky and reflexive — once redomiciling and reserve diversification start, they compound, making this a trend rather than a spike.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A talent-and-capital exodus from a major economy follows a sharp policy shift. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.