What if Tariff cost-push: sticky goods inflation collides with slowing growth?
Broad import tariffs raise goods prices while sapping real incomes, producing a mild stagflation that keeps inflation sticky and tips the growth-recession signal higher.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Broad import tariffs raise goods prices while sapping real incomes, producing a mild stagflation that keeps inflation sticky and tips the growth-recession signal higher. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.57–-0.64% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.09–+0.27% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.04–-0.27% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.84–+2.0% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.73–-0.42% · other way +2.18% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.4–+0.42% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.84–-0.22% · other way +2.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.74–+0.28% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.14–-0.07% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.47–+2.75% · other way -1.79% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.99–+1.08% · other way +4.47% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.68–+0.38% · other way +1.54% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.04–+0.4% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.6% | 70% | 33 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.5% | 68% | 30 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.7% | 68% | 30 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +5bp | 61% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.3% | 62% | 31 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.1% | 64% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -6.6% | 64% | 23 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -5.0% | 63% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 31 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |