What if the Teamsters strike over Amazon's warehouse robots?
A Teamsters strike against Amazon robotics during peak season is a labor-action/cost shock — same-day delivery costs spike and AMZN margins compress; the read is idiosyncratic, not market-wide. Rhymes with the 2023 UPS-Teamsters showdown and the 2024 East-Coast port (ILA) strike, both of which threatened freight costs but settled without lasting index damage. The automation_displacement root over-weights a tech-beneficiary read on what is really a labor-disruption event.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Teamsters launch nationwide strike as Amazon deploys Sequoia robots, halting peak-season shipments and spiking same-day delivery costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Labor shortage ▲ · Job displacement ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.