What if the US term premium surges 150 basis points?
A 150bp term-premium jump is the 'fiscal dominance' trade: long-end yields rise while the dollar weakens and gold/BTC bid as non-sovereign hedges — a bear-steepener divorced from growth. Rhymes with the 2023 term-premium repricing and, more sharply, UK gilts in autumn 2022 when supply fears sent yields up and sterling down together. The novel angle versus prior US episodes is the simultaneous dollar-down/gold-up combo, which signals reserve-status doubt rather than a normal rate shock — the cascade captures this correctly.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. US term premium jumps 150bps as deficit projections and supply overwhelm demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -2.97–+6.37% |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +15bp hist -1.27–+23.58% |
| 3 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +13bp hist +3.78–+15.56% |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -5.94–+3.74% |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.97–+1.39% |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.63–+0.33% |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.66–+0.5% |
| 13 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT on SPX: a thin/stale sample (Volcker, Nixon, Louvre 1971-87) under a totally different rate and positioning regime — a 150bp term-premium supply shock today won't replay those equity paths.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -14.5% · 5d -7.4% | 100% | 6 | 0.86 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 100% | 2 | 0.75 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -19.5% · 5d -7.8% | 83% | 6 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 73% | 11 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +6bp | 62% | 8 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.6% | 55% | 11 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -0.1% | 50% | 2 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 45% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 2 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.2% | 50% | 4 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +10.1% · 5d +8.1% | 50% | 2 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | LONG | +19.7% · 5d +9.5% | 50% | 2 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +2.1% | 50% | 2 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +6.2% | 50% | 2 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
150bp term-premium jump in 6mo is large; supply pressure real but moves usually gradual. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.