What if a rapid Treasury cash rebuild drains bank reserves?
A fast TGA refill is a mechanical reserve drain — it pulls liquidity from the banking system and RRP, tightening funding and hitting the highest-beta liquidity assets (crypto, HY) first. Rhymes with the 2023 post-debt-ceiling TGA rebuild, which the RRP buffer absorbed surprisingly smoothly. The transmission is bank reserves; the forward twist is that with RRP now near-empty, a refill bites real reserves rather than idle cash — funding stress (SOFR spikes) is more likely than in 2023, so size the crypto downside larger if RRP is depleted.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A rapid post-deal Treasury General Account rebuild drains reserves and tightens funding markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.